What a month of expansion news says about where national retailers go next, and what your community can do before the call comes.
Every week our team tracks retail expansion news: store openings, development agreements, earnings calls, building permits. Most weeks it reads like a list. This month it read like a pattern.
From mid-September to mid-October, more than a dozen national brands committed to their first location in a new state. Hawaiian Bros signed to build 52 restaurants in Florida. Swig signed for 11 in Washington. Dunn Brothers Coffee picked East Moline, Illinois, for its first store in the state, and a western Illinois farm supply chain is opening in Cheraw, South Carolina, a town of about 5,500. Ford’s Garage chose Chattanooga for its first Tennessee location, and IKEA opened its first Oklahoma store in Tulsa on October 23.
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Florida
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Washington
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East Moline, IL
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Cheraw, SC
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Chattanooga, TN
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Tulsa, OK
Most of these announcements named a state or a metro and stopped there. The operators have capital and a development schedule. What they don’t have yet is a list of towns.
How the first site gets picked
New-state expansion is usually handled by a franchisee, an experienced operator who has bought a territory and agreed to open a set number of stores by a deadline. The group taking Hawaiian Bros into Florida already runs about 200 restaurants for other brands. Swig’s Washington partner has to open its first store by the end of next year.
Operators on a deadline start where the site is real, the numbers are documented and someone at city hall returns the call. That first store becomes the model for the next five. Communities that land early often see the brand build around them. Communities that show up in year three compete for what’s left.
Financing is changing too. Yesway, which just opened its first Arizona store in Willcox (population about 3,200, on I-10 east of Tucson), now funds much of its new construction through a capital partner. The city doesn’t need to find a developer. It needs a pad that’s controlled, entitled and ready. For most communities, that’s a far more achievable ask.
The 2 pm restaurant
A good share of this month’s restaurant deals came from brands that close by mid-afternoon. Eggs Up Grill has posted 23 straight quarters of same-store sales growth on a 6 a.m. to 2 p.m. schedule, and it operates in towns as small as Camden, South Carolina. Flying Biscuit, Big Biscuit, Biscuit Belly, Snooze, First Watch, Einstein Bros. and Jeff’s Bagel Run all announced expansions in the same four weeks.
23
straight quarters of same-store sales growth
The breakfast brand’s business day
Also announced expansions
This matters for smaller communities. These brands need weekday-morning traffic and strong weekends, not a dinner crowd. A town with a busy commute and quiet evenings has long been a hard sell to restaurants. For breakfast and brunch concepts, it’s the target profile, and a vacant dinner-house building can often work.
Your best site may already be built
National retail vacancy is around 4.3%, and high construction and financing costs are slowing new builds. Retailers have adjusted by going after existing space. Golden Corral’s smaller prototypes are designed to convert existing restaurants. Sprouts entered Michigan in a former Kroger. Barnes & Noble keeps backfilling former Joann and Forever 21 stores.
We’re seeing it in our client communities. In Marshall, Texas, Academy Sports + Outdoors opens in November in a former Gibson’s that sat empty for more than 30 years. In Carson, California, Sprouts took over a vacant 99 Cents Only. In Pittsburg, California, a family-owned grocer filled a shopping center anchor that had been dark since 2019.
Drive-thru pads are next. Starbucks is closing about 250 North American cafés, and the beverage brands expanding now can operate in as little as 800 square feet. In our experience, the community that gets a site package to the next tenant within 60 days usually gets the deal.
Five questions to ask about your market this fall
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Is a local business owner nearing retirement?
Convenience store owners are increasingly selling to buyers like Casey’s, Oxxo and TXB instead of closing. A timely introduction keeps the doors open and can bring a national name to town.
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If a brand entering your state called tomorrow, could you send a site package that week?
Ownership, zoning, utilities and traffic counts. Operators filling a new territory move fast and remember who made it easy.
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Do you know your daytime population?
Morning brands underwrite on who drives through at 7 a.m. and who’s in town on Saturday, not just who lives there.
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Which vacant buildings still have good bones?
A current list of second-generation space with square footage and parking is one of the most useful recruiting tools you can have.
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Who controls your drive-thru pads?
As closures free them up, the first credible offer usually wins.
When a manufacturer expands, a distribution center breaks ground or a new neighborhood gets approved, retailers notice. The past few months delivered plenty of economic development wins in rural and mid-sized communities, and national brands are responding.
What does your market look like?
Request a market pulse report and start building a retail-ready future for your community.
