Our team spends time in communities all over the country, working with the brokers, developers, and retailers who shape what gets built and where. Those conversations give us a clear view of where national brands are headed. Here’s what stands out right now, and what it means for retail recruitment in small towns.
Trend one
The box got smaller
Prototype shrink isn’t new, but this period it showed up everywhere at once, in categories that have nothing to do with each other: furniture, coffee, burgers, pet boarding, department stores. Brands are re-cutting their formats to fit the real estate that is actually available instead of waiting on the real estate they used to ask for.
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750 sq ft
Smalls Sliders builds a 750-square-foot modular “Can” on a half acre, with 100 to 120 feet of frontage.
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750–1,500 sq ft
Huddle House added a 750- to 1,500-square-foot Express format alongside its 2,000- to 3,000-square-foot mainline store.
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800–870 sq ft
Swig wants 800 to 870 square feet, drive-thru only, with no full kitchen.
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1,800 sq ft
Potbelly is building an 1,800-square-foot Digital Kitchen.
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1,800–2,000 sq ft
QDOBA is now asking for 1,800- to 2,000-square-foot endcaps.
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1,850 sq ft
Huey Magoo’s new drive-thru is about 1,850 square feet on a half-acre parcel, with development costs down as much as 40%.
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2,200–2,800 sq ft
A&W rolled out a diner prototype at 2,200 to 2,800 square feet with 40 to 70 seats.
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3,500–4,500 sq ft
Walk-On’s new sports bar prototype is 3,500 to 4,500 square feet, about half its traditional size, and fits in-line and endcap space.
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6,000 sq ft
Camp Bow Wow took roughly $400,000 out of its build cost with a new prototype at about 6,000 square feet.
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20,800 sq ft
Bealls is building to a 20,800-square-foot junior anchor.
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66,000 sq ft
IKEA opened at Gurnee Mills in Gurnee, Illinois, outside of Chicago, in 66,000 square feet. Its usual store is north of 300,000 square feet.
Trend two
The population floor dropped
The second shift is who these brands will underwrite. Several entered states where they have no stores at all. Several opened in towns that fall below their own published screens. And a few said it out loud. That matters, because it means local leaders can hear the case directly from the retailers themselves.
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1,900 people
Checkers & Rally’s is going into Louisa, Virginia, between Richmond and Charlottesville, population about 1,900.
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4,000 people
HTeaO opened in Presidio, Texas, a town of about 4,000 on the Mexico border in far West Texas.
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4,000 people
Lowes Foods is converting a market in Lyman, South Carolina, into a full-service supermarket. Lyman has about 4,000 residents.
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10,000 people
Zaxby’s is opening in Paris, Tennessee, northwest of Nashville, population about 10,000.
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Under 15,000 people
Bealls is opening 25 stores in twelve states, including its first Michigan locations. All four Michigan towns have fewer than 15,000 people.
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Under 15,000 people
Whataburger and Wingstop both committed to Dumas, Texas, a town of under 15,000 north of Amarillo.
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13,000–16,000 people
Huddle House published its screen: 13,000 to 16,000 people within a ten-minute drive and $45,000 to $65,000 household income.
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24 stores
Casey’s General Stores is buying all 24 Pak-A-Sak convenience stores in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. Its stated strategy is small towns and suburbs over big cities.
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50–55 openings a year
Culver’s named Oklahoma a growth state. It has zero stores there today and plans 50 to 55 openings a year.
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7,500 store target
TJX raised its long-term store target by 500, to 7,500, and told investors growth goes from 3% to 4% a year starting next fiscal year. The company named rural areas as where the remaining opportunity sits. That’s an off-price giant saying “rural” on an earnings call.
If your community keeps hearing “you’re too small,” that list is the rebuttal. Many of those towns are smaller than yours.
What this mean for small-town retail recruitment
Smaller formats and lower population thresholds are opening doors that were closed just a few years ago. If your community has an overlooked outparcel, a vacant endcap or a split grocery box, it may be more marketable than you think. Let’s talk about what national brands are looking for right now and how your available sites fit.
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