2024 Retail Resource

2024 Retail Expansion Outlook

2024 retail expansion outlook, garrick brown and elliott cook

2024 Retail Expansion Outlook

In 2024, retail is set to continue the multi-year trend of more stores slated to open than close in 2024. This positive trend is bolstered by the anticipated “soft landing” of the economy which, by March, could potentially lead to even higher store growth projections. Despite rising credit card debt and declining savings levels, we closed 2023 with holiday spending surging by 3-4%, indicating strong consumer confidence.

Garrick Brown and his team at Gallelli Real Estate undertook the challenging task of tracking projected retail openings across North America. Their team surveyed more than 8,300 retail and restaurant chains, finding:

  • A net increase of 21,908+ storefronts planned for 2024
  • Dollar stores remain the growth leaders
  • Coffee operators like Dutch Bros, Scooters, and 7Brew have aggressive expansion plans
  • Direct to Consumer (DTC) operators will continue to open brick-and-mortar this year

Real Estate professionals believe that even a brief economic downturn, while unlikely, could present an opportunity to acquire high-quality real estate. They estimate that 80% of the junior box spaces vacated in the past five years have already been filled.

Apparel

The retail landscape is a mixed picture in 2024, with surprising winners and unwavering stalwarts. While children’s wear faces challenges, the apparel sector finds strength in accessories and brand-specific success stories like Uptown Cheapskate and Abercrombie, catering to both budget-conscious and fashion-forward consumers.

Car Washes

Beyond apparel, unexpected niches are booming. Car washes, exemplified by MOD Wash and Take 5, are planning a staggering 590 new locations, capitalizing on the demand for convenience and comprehensive car care solutions.

Experiential Retail and Wellness

Experiential retail is also thriving, with pickleball leading the charge. ACE Pickleball‘s planned expansion of 45 new courts reflects the surging popularity of this dynamic sport. Similarly, the health and wellness space sees established gyms like LA Fitness expanding alongside boutique studios offering personalized experiences in yoga, pilates, and kickboxing.

Convenience

Convenience stores remain a retail rock, with 7-ElevenCircle KCasey’s, and Buc-ee’s all demonstrating continued growth. Even department stores are adapting, as evidenced by Macy’s foray into smaller, curated format stores.

This diverse and evolving retail landscape paints a vibrant picture for 2024. From the resurgence of specific apparel segments to the rise of pickleball courts and the unwavering strength of convenience stores, the industry is not merely recovering from the pandemic, it is actively innovating and adapting to changing consumer preferences. The future of retail is anything but stagnant, offering something for everyone and promising continued excitement.


For a deeper dive, listen to a recent discussion I had with Garrick Brown.

You can hear the webinar and download the slide deck here:

elliott cook

Elliott Cook

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